Although Edmonton real estate is not a hot market, benchmark prices, year/year trends, listings-to-sales ratios, housing starts and affordability are all factors that make Edmonton’s residential, commercial and industrial real estate more of a lukewarm market – with positive momentum.
Recent numbers underscore that Alberta has 12 per cent of Canada’s population and 25 per cent of Canada’s jobs. Provincial housing starts surged to a 10-year high in 2024, with the most significant gains in the Edmonton area.
Edmonton commercial and industrial real estate is rebounding, but still dealing with post-pandemic vacancy situations.
Edmonton’s residential real estate stats and trends are in a good place, strong and getting better. In fact, the numbers show that, among Canada’s five largest population centers (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary), Edmonton is the most affordable.
“While consumers have more buying power in the Greater Edmonton Area, it can still be difficult for buyers to find and purchase a home within their budget,”notes Darlene Reid, chair of The REALTORS® Associations of Edmonton (RAE) and associate broker with MORE Real Estate. She cites the tight re-sale inventory of most Canadian real estate markets which has lots of potential buyers with not enough listings.
According to RAE’s recent year end Market Report Summary:
- The average price of detached Edmonton homes increased 13 per cent, year-over-year, to $540,320.
- Edmonton benchmark prices grew by nearly eight per cent, to $402,000.
- Edmonton’s semi-detached home average prices were $411,469.
- Edmonton townhouse average prices were $288,176.
Inventory and affordability continue as key factors in the Edmonton real estate market.
“We expect inventory to play a big part in our housing market this year,” Reid adds. “Our inventory levels are substantially lower than this time last year, and we know that will impact average prices. We expect to see a seller’s market continue into 2025 due to the lack of available inventory.
“Affordability in our market is relative when we compare Edmonton to cities like Toronto, Vancouver and even Calgary. It’s difficult to predict whether we’ll have an affordability problem in the future and whether we’ll see Edmonton’s average prices climb to the same degree that we saw in Calgary.”
Momentum and positivity best describe Edmonton’s residential market.
“Edmonton real estate is poised for another dynamic year, building on the strong performance of 2024,” says Paul Gravelle, REALTOR® at MaxWell Progressive. “Edmonton is maintaining its position as one of Canada’s most affordable major cities, although this advantage may be narrowing.”
When it comes to Edmonton market fundamentals and projections, he points out that the market shows no signs of cooling, with several key factors driving growth.
“Interest rates are expected to decrease by up to 1.75 per cent through 2025. Edmonton housing starts are strong, surging 47 per cent in Q3 2024, and Edmonton leads Canadian cities in streamlining the home-building process.”
He mentions that migration continues to fuel demand, particularly from remote workers seeking affordability.
“It is a key factor, giving those who have the ability to work from home or can transfer to the Edmonton area. Edmonton is proving to be the best place for affordable home and work/life balance.”
Reid also underscores the Edmonton real estate market impact of migration.
“Inter-provincial migration has impacted available inventory levels, as out-of-province buyers moving into Alberta are looking for a more affordable option and hope to see their money go much further here in Edmonton than in other high-priced markets.
“While actual interprovincial migration in 2024 was down 8.5 per cent from the previous year, it’s still above historical averages. The surge in Edmonton’s population has outpaced employment growth, tightening housing supply and causing an unemployment spike.”
She adds that investors are showing significant interest in Edmonton apartments as an affordable option with the potential for a high ROI.
Most Realtors cringe about crystal ball gazing and guesswork, but, based on 2024 trends and activity, Gravelle speculates with expertise about Edmonton’s various ‘hot markets’ for 2025.
“For detached homes, it’s probably Secord, Chapelle, Keswick, The Uplands, Summerside and Laurel. For semi-detached, The Orchards, Maple Crest and Summerside. For condos and apartments, it’s Wîhkwêntôwin (Oliver), Downtown, Garneau, Rutherford, South Terwillegar and Clareview Town Center.
On the flip side of the real estate market coin, Edmonton’s commercial and industrial real estate is a uniquely different scenario with trends suggesting that those markets are seeing more rental unit demand, migration to higher quality office buildings and strong industrial sector growth downtown and in the surrounding areas.
Edmonton’s downtown office space and spiked vacancy rates, battered by pandemic broadsides and transformative work-from-home trends, is rebounding. The office market is on track and maintaining positive absorption with a vacancy rate of 23.6 per cent, which is up from 21.6 per cent in 2024. There is also a trend of businesses migrating towards higher-quality buildings for better lease reasons.
The industrial market is expected to get a boost from national and international developers and tenants looking for lower real estate costs compared to other Canadian markets.
“Downtown net rental rates for office space ranges from $16-$30 per square foot, depending on the quality of the building,” says the Cory Wosnack, principal and managing director with Avison Young. “Despite an increase in vacancy rates compared to 2019, rental rates have stayed relatively flat. The notable change in the deal terms since 2019 is the substantially higher inducements.
“While the total cost for Edmonton office space has been consistent over the past six years, tenants have been able to obtain higher improvement allowances to offset renovation costs, as well as more free rent at the beginning of a new lease term.”
From experience, he points out that work-from-home is less of a trend than it is a way of working that will remain for years to come.
“While the work arrangement will still be available to many employees, more so at certain types of organizations such as government, we are tracking a slow increase in employees working in the office than we have seen since 2019. This shift is creating more activated Edmonton office buildings, but in a very slow fashion.”
When it comes to Edmonton’s 2025 commercial and industrial real estate outlook, “We expect continued activity from private investors looking to add to their portfolios,” Wosnack says. Private investors have dominated the investment market over the past year, most of them local. Investment interest in land will extend through 2025 as building new residential communities is on the minds of speculative developers.
The Avison Young numbers highlight that, although Edmonton’s industrial market continued to show strength and strong velocity in 2024, it was driven largely by strong population growth combined with an energy sector that is operating at an accommodating level of $70-$90 per barrel of oil.
“Just a guess but, 2025 will depend on how tariffs and trade with the US are affected with the new administration. Edmonton space continues to be limited and developers who know the market best are moving ahead with new construction projects.”
